Will Gold Coast and Brisbane apartment prices fall? How we see the market in late 2026

SIERA Perspectives | By Brent Thompson, Founder and Managing Director, SIERA
As at October 2026

Some apartment prices across the Gold Coast and Brisbane have eased from their recent peaks after four interest rate rises this year. The whole thing is not going backwards, it is splitting. Good projects in good locations are still selling.

People are naturally asking whether apartment prices will fall further. These are genuine concerns, and we should never pretend otherwise. Buying a home or making an investment is a significant financial decision, and it is understandable to feel cautious when borrowing costs are rising and the headlines are predicting further falls.

My position is that cycles are a natural part of the economy. In all property markets, there are cycles, ups and downs, and this is predictable. That is going to happen at some stage, which is why you need to make good decisions on good property in a good location for the right fundamentals. It is not like the stock market, where you analyse the price each day. You make these decisions with a long-term horizon, knowing there will be ups and downs on the way. At SIERA, we do not try to pick the market or give short-term price forecasts. We focus on whether a home is well designed, represents value, suits the buyer's life and means, and is being delivered by people they can trust.

How we see the Gold Coast and Brisbane market right now

Fundamentals determine where a market goes. Sentiment determines when it gets there.

Sentiment is cautious because borrowing costs have risen sharply through 2026. When people feel uncertain, they take longer to make decisions. Sales volumes fall, homes take longer to sell, and negative headlines reinforce that caution.

History would tell us that trying to pick any market is fraught with danger. We have to remain educated and understand what is driving changes, what is driving sentiment, what is structural, and what is not.

That means looking beyond this month's price movement. Credit conditions can change sentiment quickly. The time, cost, labour, land, and funding required to create new housing change much more slowly. Those fundamentals matter when you are considering what a home may cost to replace in several years.

Property decisions are also personal. You are not watching the price every day. You are deciding where to live, how the home will work for you, what you can comfortably afford, and whether you trust the people responsible for delivering it.

SIERA is still buying sites, designing homes, and building through this market. That is a statement of what we are doing, not a prediction that prices will move in one direction. Good residential projects take years to plan and deliver. For us, the work is to keep making sound decisions through each stage of the cycle.

What has changed in 2026

On 29 September 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate target to 4.60%. The decision was unanimous and marked the fourth increase of 2026, taking the cash rate to its highest level since 2011.

Higher interest rates directly reduce borrowing capacity. Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at realestate.com.au, described that reality plainly: "Your borrowing capacity has been reduced by more than what prices have fallen."

Established prices have softened from their peaks. Cotality's national Home Value Index recorded a 1.1% fall in September, leaving dwelling values 5.2% below the March 2026 peak. In Brisbane, Cotality reported a 1.5% monthly fall across all dwellings, placing values 5.4% below their May peak, though Brisbane units remained 8.5% higher over the year. On the Gold Coast, PropTrack recorded values 3.7% higher over the year to September, with unit values 6.5% higher over the year to August.

It is not realistic for the price growth that we saw through 2022 to be sustained. Recent adjustments leave established prices still well above the prices we saw in the last few years, meaning that any drop is only a drop from the peak and not below recent times.

Forecasts by others illustrate how divided views are. Third-party forecasts range from NAB predicting Brisbane dwelling prices to drop about 11% peak to trough, to Westpac forecasting Brisbane prices would finish 2026 up 2%, while SQM Research projected Gold Coast prices were on track to slump 20%.

Changes to property tax legislation also take effect from 1 July 2027.

What is structural and what is sentiment

Many buildings are completing across 2026 and 2027 because they commenced years ago. The Rider Levett Bucknall Crane Index recorded 82 cranes on the Gold Coast in the third quarter of 2026. Yet homes completing today may not be replaced at the same pace. ABS dwelling approvals fell 22.5% in Queensland in August 2026, and the Housing Industry Association expects fewer starts in 2027. A Property Council of Australia report by Urbis found roughly 60% of Gold Coast apartments due in 2028 and 2029 carry a moderate or high risk of delay or withdrawal.

Construction costs remain elevated. ABS output prices for other residential building in Queensland rose 9.0% over the year to June 2026, and 92% of the 189 respondents in a survey by The Urban Developer and WT expect further rises.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted feedback that "particularly for high density, it wasn't economic for developers to build" because "they couldn't sell the houses for the cost of building it", adding "we have a structural under supply of housing". Hutchinson Builders chairman Scott Hutchinson warned "the price of construction goes above what you can sell a unit for".

So you have supply constraints coming from the availability of credit, and supply constraints coming from construction costs. All of this increases the baseline delivery cost, which increases the end value that a property has to be sold for in order for it to be feasible for it to be delivered.

Typically we do not see construction prices come back down, which means the cost of delivery will remain elevated and continue to grow, meaning that the replacement value will be above the current value.

We examine this cost evidence in Should I Buy Off the Plan Now or Wait for the Market to Settle?

Why the Gold Coast and Brisbane are different markets

The Gold Coast and Brisbane are driven by different buyer decisions.

The Gold Coast is primarily a lifestyle market. A large share of buyers are locals moving from a family home, seeking a residence suited to the next stage of their life. While the Gold Coast economy now supports diverse industries, the depth of the market comes from people seeking a lifestyle.

Many SIERA buyers are local owner-occupiers who are predominantly debt free, and their decisions are directly correlated to their confidence in the delivery of the project. Buyers who do not rely on loans are less directly affected by interest rate changes.

Brisbane functions on traditional capital-city drivers: employment hubs, housing need, and buyers who are earlier in their property journey. Because more buyers rely on bank finance, shifts in borrowing capacity affect transaction activity more quickly.

Recognising these distinct drivers guides how we buy sites and plan our pipeline. In Brisbane, we remain selective and timing led.

Where the value is

The value is always in good property that's well designed with good amenity, good finishes, in good locations, delivered by good companies. That will never change.

When you think about the long-term horizon and the availability of beachfront or beachside sites, and who is delivering them, I think that is more important.

The value proposition we keep talking about is the cost of replacement.

For investors, my view is unchanged: Don't buy an investment property. Buy a home worth investing in.

At Tapestry on Chevron Island, titles registered in early October, and settlements begin in the third week of October. We are seeing valuations coming well above purchase prices. This is a reflection of the value that has been delivered at Tapestry, as well as the timing of those early purchases and the fact that SIERA has never changed any purchase prices or activated sunset dates.

Exhale in Northcliffe, Surfers Paradise, also shows that well-considered homes are still finding buyers. It is under construction, 60 metres to the sand, and more than half of its 54 residences are under contract.

What the 2027 tax changes mean for buyers

Under the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, from 1 July 2027, rental losses on established dwellings bought after 7.30 pm on Budget night, 12 May 2026, can no longer reduce salary or other income. New homes that meet the rules remain exempt, though the statutory definition of an eligible new dwelling is still being finalised. Official Budget material lists off-the-plan apartments as eligible, but regulations are not yet law.

There is a lot of uncertainty around, but the fundamentals of why you purchase property and purchasing good property have not changed. Property should not be purchased on just a tax benefit scenario. Major change like this is inevitably going to cause disruption and unintended consequences. Buyers should always seek independent tax advice.

What to be careful of

Good due diligence is good practice no matter what you are doing. Understand everything about the property, who is delivering it, the construction timeframes, and how you will stay up to date with progress.

Developer reputation and ability to complete has never been so important. The more transparent a developer can be, the more faith buyers will have. It's very important to understand how the development is being funded and who the development is being funded by.

Be cautious of these warning signs:

• Projects without a builder under contract, confirmed finance, or a clear start date.
• Large discounts, rebates, or furniture packages.
• Small investor-style apartments in areas facing high supply.
• Buildings dominated by short-term letting.
• Body corporate fees and thin sinking funds.

SIERA has never asked buyers for more money, never used a sunset clause, never terminated a contract, and has delivered every project. Our residences are designed, developed, built, sold, and managed by SIERA, giving buyers one accountable team.

We detail these checks in Buying Off the Plan in Queensland: The Process and What to Check Before You Sign.

How to decide whether to buy now

If it's good property in a good location that represents good value and is being delivered by a reputable company that can be trusted, then you should, if your circumstances suit that decision.

If you are looking to make an investment decision and it's good property in the right location with strong fundamentals, then it would be the right decision. I would never recommend making that decision for purely taxation purposes, and I don't think people should be trying to predict where we are in the market.

If you are borrowing, model what you can and cannot afford, complete your own research, take independent advice, and purchase within your means.

For buyers moving from a family home, by buying off the plan, you are locking in the price for your new home while not having to sell your current home in the current market. Everyone just needs to make the decision taking in their own personal circumstances, and understand the timing of that decision and what it means for the sale of their property.

Our typical pricing arrangement is launch pricing, escalating as construction progresses. Early buyers who put their trust in us help the project commence and secure first choice and early pricing.

We review practical steps in Are Off-the-Plan Apartments a Good Option for Retirees and Downsizers?

What matters most to me is that you find the right place and understand exactly what you are buying.

Questions buyers ask

Will Gold Coast apartment prices go down in 2027?

We do not forecast market prices. In the established market, PropTrack recorded a 0.7% easing in Gold Coast dwelling values over the September quarter, while unit values remained 6.5% higher over the year to August. We will not see a change in the pricing of the homes we are delivering. We follow our normal price escalation throughout delivery. Across other new off-the-plan homes, discounting is unlikely unless a project faces funding pressure, delivery issues, or a mismatch between the home, its location, and its design.

Are Brisbane apartment prices falling?

Yes, established Brisbane unit values are falling, but we doubt new off-the-plan homes are moving in the same way. Cotality recorded a 1.4% fall in September and 4.2% over the quarter, while values remained 8.5% higher over the year. Replacement costs remain elevated, and we see no real change in pricing for the homes we are delivering. Discounting may reflect financial pressure or a home that does not suit its location.

What does the 4.60% cash rate mean for apartment buyers?

The 4.60% cash rate reduces borrowing capacity and increases repayments for many borrowers. Buyers should model what they can comfortably afford and obtain advice for their circumstances. Its effect differs between borrowers and buyers moving from family homes who may need little or no debt.

Do new apartments hold their value when the market falls?

Some do and some do not. Good design, location, amenity, buyer appeal, building management, and replacement cost all matter. Nationally, 90.5% of unit resales recorded a nominal profit in the June quarter of 2026, but that does not guarantee the result for an individual home.

Is it better to buy new or established after the 2026 tax changes?

Neither is automatically better. The legislation treats qualifying new and established investment properties differently, but the definition of a new residential dwelling is still being finalised. Choose on the property's fundamentals and your circumstances, not tax alone, and obtain independent tax advice.

Should I wait for prices to fall before buying?

Do not base the decision on picking the exact bottom of the market. Consider the home, location, value, developer, replacement cost, and whether the timing suits your life and means. We explore that decision further in Should I Buy Off the Plan Now or Wait for the Market to Settle?.

Related reading: Is the Gold Coast property market crashing? What falling prices and rising building costs mean for buyers

Sources

• Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy Decision media release, 29 September 2026.
• Reserve Bank of Australia, Governor Michele Bullock media conference transcript, 29 September 2026.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics, Building Approvals, Australia, August 2026 (released 30 September 2026).
• Australian Bureau of Statistics, Producer Price Indexes, Australia, June quarter 2026 (released 31 July 2026).
• Housing Industry Association, home building starts outlook, September 2026.
• Rider Levett Bucknall, RLB Crane Index Australia, Q3 2026.
• Cotality, Home Value Index, 1 October 2026.
• PropTrack, Gold Coast Home Price Index reports, realestate.com.au, 1 September and 1 October 2026.
• realestate.com.au, Eleanor Creagh on Gold Coast borrowing capacity, 1 September 2026.
• Cotality, Pain and Gain report, June quarter 2026, as reported by Australian Property Update, 16 September 2026.
• Property Council of Australia and Urbis, Apartment Market Summary Gold Coast, May 2026.
• The Urban Developer and WT, The Construction Cost Crunch industry sentiment report, September 2026.
• The Australian Financial Review, Scott Hutchinson interview report, 28 September 2026.
• NAB Housing Monitor reporting, 9 October 2026.
• SQM Research forecast reporting, 19 September 2026.
• Westpac Housing Pulse, 25 September 2026.
• Federal Register of Legislation, Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, Act No. 49 of 2026 (assented 26 June 2026).
• Commonwealth of Australia, Budget Paper No. 2, 12 May 2026.

Brent Thompson is the Founder and Managing Director of SIERA.
Reviewed October 2026.

General information only. This article is not financial, tax, legal, or property advice.